The initial results from my 2018 forecasting study have been made available. These include results from the survey conducted at ICML, IJCAI and HLAI. The figure shows the aggregate forecasts and 95% confidence bands for each of the transformative AI scenarios.
Interested readers can find the full manuscript here: Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey.
To date 25 interviews have been conducted with leading AI researchers including Jürgen Schmidhuber, Rich Sutton, Satinder Singh, Peter Stone, Thomas Dieterrich and others who choose to remain anonymous. Analysis of the 2018 interviews is forthcoming. Stay tuned for more details.