Predictions 2020

2019 Predictions (continued):

  • July 14th, 2019 – Donald Trump does not win the 2020 Presidential election: 80%. Update, August 23rd: 83.5%. Update: September 28th: 78%. Update: October 22nd: 84%. Update: November 1st: 81.5%. Update: November 25th: 78.5%. February 16th: 72.0%. March 11th: 86.5%.
  • November 20th, 2019 – Donald Trump is impeached by April 1st 2020: 92%. Update: December 10th: 94.5%. RESOLVED. — True
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 12B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 58%. Update: October 26th: 92%. Update: November 25th: 82%. Update: December 10th: 73.5%. — True
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 12B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 66.5%. Update: October 26th: 97%. Update November 25th: 87%. Update: December 10th: 91%. — True
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 19B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 42%. Update: October 26th: 57%. Update: December 10th: 34%. Update: March 11th – 43.5%. RESOLVED — False.
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 19B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 46%. Update: October 26th: 78%. Update November 25th: 62%. Update: December 10th: 58%. Update: March 11th – 68%. May 5th – 42%.
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 27B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 28%. Update: October 26th: 42%. Update: December 10th: 14%. RESOLVED — False.
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 27B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 37%. Update: October 26th: 50%. Update: December 10th: 33%. Update May 5th, 2020 – 15%.
  • November 25nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong that result in more than 25 total confirmed deaths or missing persons before April 1st, 2020 – 55%. Update: March 11th – 1.7%.
  • November 25nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong that result in more than 100 total confirmed deaths or missing persons before July 1st, 2020 – 52.5%. Update: March 11th – 18%.
  • 2020 Predictions
  • March 11th, 2020 – There are an estimated 800,000 confirmed US cases or greater of COVID19 by May 1st – 57%. March 20th – 73.5%. 3/22 – 83.5%. 3/28 – 97.5%. RESOLVED.
  • March 11th, 2020 – There are an estimated 1,000,000 confirmed US cases or greater of COVID19 by June 1st – 59%. March 20th – 69%. 3/22 – 81.5%. 3/28 – 95.5%. RESOLVED.
  • March 11th, 2020 – There is regime change or a revolution in Iran before September 1st, 2022 – 58.5%.
  • March 11th, 2020 – COVID19 leads to 250,000 deaths in the United States before July 1st, 2021 – 68%. 4/7 – 38%. 4/17 – 46.5%.
  • March 20th, 2020 – There is a chatbot service assumedly driven by transformer-based language models available for call center operations that can handle at least 80% of all calls in service by the end of March 2021 – 67.5%.
  • March 20th, 2020 – By May 15th, 2020 over 40% of confirmed/probable COVID19 cases are in the United States – 64%. 3/22 – 67.5%. 4/17 – 62.5%. 4/25 – 38%. 5/5 – 22%.
  • March 22nd, 2020 – By June 1st, 2020 over 40% of confirmed/probable COVID19 deaths are in the United States – 62.5%. 4/25 – 46%.
  • May 5th, 2020 – By June 1st, 2021 over 1 million confirmed/probable deaths in the United States (mean from 3 reputable sources) –