Predictions 2019

Predictions:

  • 2019 Predictions
  • July 14th, 2019 – Donald Trump does not win the 2020 Presidential election: 80%. Update, August 23rd: 83.5%. Update: September 28th: 78%. Update: October 22nd: 84%. Update: November 1st: 81.5%. Update: November 25th: 78.5%. GOTO 2020
  • September 30th, 2019 – Donald Trump is impeached before the end of 2019 (orginally typo of 2020): 68%. Update: October 22nd: 88.5%. Update: November 1st: 84%. Update: November 20th: 32.0% (over correction due to slow proceedings). Update: December 10th: 92% (roughly with prediction markets). <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • November 20th, 2019 – Donald Trump is impeached by April 1st 2020: 92%. Update: December 10th: 94.5%. GOTO 2020
  • October 22nd, 2019 – Donald Trump is removed from office before the end of 2020: 54%. Update: November 1st: 42%. Update November 25th: 37%. Update: December 10th: 0.5%. <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • November 20th, 2019 – Donald Trump is removed from office by April 1st 2019: 56.5%. Update November 25th: 42%. Update: December 10th: 51.5%. GOTO 2020
  • September 30th, 2019 – A 12B+ parameter language model is trained before 2020: 36%. Update: October 26th: 68%. Update: November 1st: 62%. Update: December 10th: 11.5%. <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • September 30th, 2019 – A 19B+ parameter language model is trained before 2020: 17%. Update: October 26th: 19%. Update November 25th: 33%. Update: December 10th: 18%. <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 12B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 58%. Update: October 26th: 92%. Update: November 25th: 82%. Update: December 10th: 73.5%. GOTO 2020 — True
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 12B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 66.5%. Update: October 26th: 97%. Update November 25th: 87%. Update: December 10th: 91%. GOTO 2020 — True
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 19B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 42%. Update: October 26th: 57%. Update: December 10th: 34%. GOTO 2020
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 19B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 46%. Update: October 26th: 78%. Update November 25th: 62%. Update: December 10th: 58%. GOTO 2020
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 27B+ parameter language model is trained before April 1st, 2020: 28%. Update: October 26th: 42%. Update: December 10th: 14%. GOTO 2020
  • October 22nd, 2019 – A 27B+ parameter language model is trained before July 1st, 2020: 37%. Update: October 26th: 50%. Update: December 10th: 33%. GOTO 2020
  • October 22nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong before 2020 – 58%. Update: November 25th: 54%. Update: December 10th: 34%. <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • October 22nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong that result in more than 5 total confirmed deaths or missing persons before 2020 – 38%. Update November 25th: 55%. Update: December 10th: 34%. <TODO: COMPUTE SCORE>
  • November 25nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong that result in more than 25 total confirmed deaths or missing persons before April 1st, 2020 – 55%. GOTO 2020
  • November 25nd, 2019 – The Chinese Army actively suppresses protests in Hong Kong that result in more than 100 total confirmed deaths or missing persons before July 1st, 2020 – 52.5%. GOTO 2020